{"status":"ok","comp":"ALL","line":"closing","rows":[{"id":"edgeworth","name":"Edgeworth","kind":"model","n":419,"brier":0.6371,"log_loss":1.0532,"margin_pct":null,"head_to_head":null,"note":"Our fit alone, walk-forward: every match priced before it was played."},{"id":"pinnacle","name":"Pinnacle","kind":"book","n":105,"brier":0.6258,"log_loss":1.0375,"margin_pct":3.34,"head_to_head":0.4857,"brier_skill":-0.0285,"note":"The sharp book. Low margin, high limits, and its closing line is the standard benchmark in the literature for a reason."},{"id":"bet365","name":"Bet365","kind":"book","n":419,"brier":0.6251,"log_loss":1.0363,"margin_pct":7.86,"head_to_head":0.4893,"brier_skill":-0.0192,"note":"The largest retail book in the UK. Wider margin than Pinnacle, and the price most people can actually get on."},{"id":"average","name":"Market consensus","kind":"aggregate","n":419,"brier":0.6239,"log_loss":1.0349,"margin_pct":6.44,"head_to_head":0.4606,"brier_skill":-0.0212,"note":"The mean price across every book football-data records, which is the closest thing to what the market as a whole thinks."},{"id":"max","name":"Best of market","kind":"aggregate","n":419,"brier":0.6237,"log_loss":1.0346,"margin_pct":2.46,"head_to_head":0.4606,"brier_skill":-0.0215,"note":"The best price anywhere at that moment. It is an envelope across books rather than a forecast, so its implied probabilities can sum to less than one."}],"verdict":"Every book measured here forecasts better than the model does (Pinnacle, Bet365, Market consensus, Best of market). The model's value is a coherent price for every market and match with a stated band, not an edge over a sharp closing line.","note":"Each book is scored only on the fixtures it priced, and the model is scored on that same subset, so the columns are comparable. Probabilities are the book's prices with the overround removed by the power method."}