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Football · Foundation · 4 hours

Pricing a Football Match

From two team names to every market on the board, with the uncertainty attached and the closing line as the exam.

6lessons
18quiz questions
0%your progress
£79or in a bundle
Start the first lessonSit the exam
Every scoreline at λ = 1.55, μ = 1.15, ρ = −0.05 · home 46% · draw 26% · away 28%01234560123456away goalshome goals7.3%7.1%4.4%1.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%9.8%12.6%6.9%2.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%8.1%9.3%5.3%2.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%4.2%4.8%2.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%1.6%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Sum the cells45.9%home win: below the diagonal26.4%draw: the diagonal27.6%away win: above itover 2.5 goals 50.6%both teams score 54.4%
What the course builds: every scoreline, and therefore every market, from two fitted rates and one correction.
Syllabus

What you will work through

0 of 6 done

The scoreline model

1Goals are Poisson, almost25 min · widget · 3 q2Yesterday matters less20 min · widget · 3 q3Shots tell the truth sooner20 min · widget · 3 q

From one distribution to every market

4One grid, every market25 min · widget · 3 q5How sure is the number20 min · widget · 3 q

Meeting the market

6The closing line is the exam30 min · widget · 3 q
Outcomes
  • Fit and read a Dixon–Coles scoreline model
  • Explain time decay and the shots blend
  • Derive every market from one distribution
  • Read a walk-forward backtest against the closing line honestly
How it is taught

Every lesson runs the model it teaches through the platform's own endpoints: the number on the page is the number the Arena prices with. Quizzes explain every answer. The exam draws ten questions from the lessons, passes at 70%, and issues a certificate with a verification token.

The first lesson is free

Read and run the first lesson of any course without an account. The rest unlocks with an order code, and the book that goes with the course is in the Library.