Benchmark
Against the people who price the same matches
Every book here is scored on the fixtures it priced, and the model is scored on that same subset. The prices are the ones those firms actually showed; the probabilities are those prices with the overround removed by the power method. Nothing is refitted to make this table look better.
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Where the books disagree with each other
When the best price on every outcome implies less than one between them, a split stake returns the same amount whoever wins. It is arithmetic rather than a forecast, which makes it the only edge on this page that cannot be wrong about a match.
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Rules, against the only control that matters
Not betting is in the table. A rule that cannot beat it is a way of losing money slowly, and most rules are.
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