Predict
Price any match
Two teams in. Every market out, from one fitted distribution, with the confidence band and the words that explain the number.
Pick two teams and press Price it.
Carry on
What to do with the number
This page gives you the price. These are the three things worth doing with it, all built on the same fit.
The desk
Trade it on paper
Put the model's price next to the best price available anywhere, size a ticket by fractional Kelly, and get scored against the closing line. Paper money, on purpose.
Open the desk →The specificationRead how it works
The engine behind this page written up in full: inputs, the weighted likelihood, the correction, the blend, and the three places it stops being trustworthy.
Read the spec →The courseLearn to build it
Six lessons that go from a Poisson count to a coherent book, with figures drawn from this model and the arithmetic worked through.
Start the course →