One page a day
Every day, one thing that is actually happening in sport, modelled properly: a fixture the model and the market disagree about, a forecast worth pricing, a shoe claim worth checking, a ball worth solving, a news day worth measuring. Each one carries its method and its caveat, and every number in it is computed from the same models the rest of this platform runs on.
89% of the coverage is reaction, not news
Sports news is a self-exciting process: one story produces several more. Fitting that separates what happened from how loudly it was reported.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →AC Milan v Bologna: 10.3 points of disagreement
The fitted model thinks Bologna is 10.3 percentage points more likely than the best price in the market implies. Here is where that comes from, and why it is not a tip.
Read it →What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.76 in logs
Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.
Read it →45 km/h and 10°C: pricing the weather at Hibernian
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about -9.6%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →40 km/h and 9°C: pricing the weather at Blackburn Rovers
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about -12.4%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →What the Puma Fast-R Nitro Elite 3 is worth to a 3:30 marathoner
The headline is a percentage of running economy. The number that matters is minutes, and after that, the probability of finishing ahead of somebody who did not wear them.
Read it →The model is 3.1% behind the sharpest book, and that is the whole story
Scored on 9,487 matches priced before they were played, the model's Brier is 0.5962 against Pinnacle's 0.5783. It beats 0 of 5 benchmarks. Here is what that does and does not mean.
Read it →The model is 3.1% behind the sharpest book, and that is the whole story
Scored on 9,487 matches priced before they were played, the model's Brier is 0.5962 against Pinnacle's 0.5783. It beats 0 of 5 benchmarks. Here is what that does and does not mean.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City: 12.9 points of disagreement
The fitted model thinks Coventry City is 12.9 percentage points more likely than the best price in the market implies. Here is where that comes from, and why it is not a tip.
Read it →What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.77 in logs
Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →12 km/h and 27°C: pricing the weather at Real Betis
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about +5.1%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →What the Puma Fast-R Nitro Elite 3 is worth to a 3:30 marathoner
The headline is a percentage of running economy. The number that matters is minutes, and after that, the probability of finishing ahead of somebody who did not wear them.
Read it →The model is 3.1% behind the sharpest book, and that is the whole story
Scored on 9,358 matches priced before they were played, the model's Brier is 0.5965 against Pinnacle's 0.5783. It beats 0 of 5 benchmarks. Here is what that does and does not mean.
Read it →55% of the coverage is reaction, not news
Sports news is a self-exciting process: one story produces several more. Fitting that separates what happened from how loudly it was reported.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →1. FC Union Berlin v SV Elversberg: 16.8 points of disagreement
The fitted model thinks SV Elversberg is 16.8 percentage points more likely than the best price in the market implies. Here is where that comes from, and why it is not a tip.
Read it →What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.79 in logs
Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →8 km/h and 28°C: pricing the weather at Alanyaspor
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about +6.2%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →9 km/h and 29°C: pricing the weather at Alanyaspor
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about +6.9%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →What the Puma Fast-R Nitro Elite 3 is worth to a 3:30 marathoner
The headline is a percentage of running economy. The number that matters is minutes, and after that, the probability of finishing ahead of somebody who did not wear them.
Read it →The model is 3.1% behind the sharpest book, and that is the whole story
Scored on 9,358 matches priced before they were played, the model's Brier is 0.5965 against Pinnacle's 0.5783. It beats 0 of 5 benchmarks. Here is what that does and does not mean.
Read it →90% of the coverage is reaction, not news
Sports news is a self-exciting process: one story produces several more. Fitting that separates what happened from how loudly it was reported.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.79 in logs
Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →What the Puma Fast-R Nitro Elite 3 is worth to a 3:30 marathoner
The headline is a percentage of running economy. The number that matters is minutes, and after that, the probability of finishing ahead of somebody who did not wear them.
Read it →The model is 3.1% behind the sharpest book, and that is the whole story
Scored on 9,358 matches priced before they were played, the model's Brier is 0.5965 against Pinnacle's 0.5783. It beats 0 of 5 benchmarks. Here is what that does and does not mean.
Read it →100% of the coverage is reaction, not news
Sports news is a self-exciting process: one story produces several more. Fitting that separates what happened from how loudly it was reported.
Read it →Eight hundred revolutions a minute is worth 3.00 metres
A free kick is three forces and a differential equation. Solve it properly and the bend a commentator calls unplayable turns out to be an exactly predictable quantity.
Read it →What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.78 in logs
Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.
Read it →The wall is at 76% of VO₂max, and eating moves it
A marathon is a constrained optimisation. The constraint is grams of carbohydrate, and it decides the fastest pace a runner can hold before arithmetic rather than willpower ends the race.
Read it →13 km/h and 35°C: pricing the weather at Estrela
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about +8.8%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →28 km/h and 22°C: pricing the weather at Birmingham City
The forecast at kick-off moves the expected goals in this match by about -0.4%. That is a real effect, it is small, and it is graded.
Read it →