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Quant Library · The athlete · Any

Fitness-Fatigue and the Taper

Two leaky buckets, and the day the gap between them is widest.

Banister's impulse-response model of training, with the taper search that finds when to cut load and by how much.

Inputs

What it takes

2
NameTypeUnitsWhere it comes from
daily loadlistarbitrary unitsyour training log
tau_fitness, tau_fatigue, k optionalfloatsdays, days, -fitted per athlete, or 45, 15 and 2
Outputs

What it gives back

2
NameTypeUnitsNotes
fitness, fatigue, performancearraysarbitrary units
best taper(length, cut)days, fraction
Method

How it works

  1. Convolve the load with two decaying exponentials, one slow and one fast.
  2. 2 further steps in the licensed specification
Assumptions
  • Training effects add linearly and decay exponentially, which is a summary rather than a physiology.
Limits
  • The units are arbitrary: the model ranks plans, it does not predict times. Fitting the constants needs a season of honest load and test data.
Validation

What it was measured at

ok

Searched now, over taper length and load cut, on the standard constants.

Time constants45 days fitness, 15 days fatigue
Fatigue weight2performance is fitness minus twice fatigue
Best taper found21 days, cutting 60%
Unitsarbitrarythe model ranks plans, it does not predict times
In the package
  • The full specification: inputs, method, assumptions and limits
  • The validation panel as measured on the day of purchase
  • A reference implementation extracted from the running source
  • Perpetual commercial use for one entity

Reference modules:

  • 1 module(s), named in the licensed specification and shipped in the package
Read this before you buy. The platform's own walk-forward tests say the closing line forecasts football better than these models do. What they give you is a coherent price for every market and match, before the market opens, with the band and the working attached. Any model here that has been beaten by something simpler says so in its limits, and the validation panel above is generated from the platform's result files rather than typed in.