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Daily paper · 2026-09-21 · ladder

What a league is worth: Premier League to Super League Greece is 0.78 in logs

Domestic ratings cannot be compared across leagues, because a side is only ever measured against its own division. European ties are where leagues meet, and they identify one number per league.

footballeuroperatings
Premier League
×1.00
on 964 European matches
Primeira Liga
×0.59
the middle of the ladder
Super League Greece
×0.46
on 378 matches
Fitted on
2,841
European ties since 2019

The identification problem

If two leagues never play each other, no amount of domestic data can rank them: every side's rating is relative to its own division's average. European competition is the only bridge, so the whole ladder rests on a few hundred matches a season between clubs that are, by construction, not representative of their leagues.

Which is why the intervals matter

Super League Greece carries an interval of ×0.37 to ×0.57. Any cross-league price built on it inherits that width, and the platform prints it rather than hiding it behind a point estimate.

Method

One goal-rate offset per league, fitted by maximum likelihood on European results with the domestic strengths held fixed and the reference league pinned at 1.00.

Caveat

Sides carry the league they play in today, and the clubs that qualify for Europe are the strongest in their division, which biases the strong leagues down rather than up.

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The league ladder: each league's goal rate against the Premier League with 95% intervals,from 2,832 European matches×0.3×0.4×0.5×0.6×0.7×0.8×0.9×1.0×1.1×1.2×1.3×1.4× the Premier League goal ratePremier League×1.00 · 960 matchesBundesliga×0.83 · 880 matchesLa Liga×0.82 · 992 matchesLigue 1×0.81 · 724 matchesSerie A×0.79 · 954 matchesChampionship×0.73 · 152 matchesEredivisie×0.61 · 570 matchesPrimeira Liga×0.60 · 532 matchesSüper Lig×0.55 · 350 matchesOutside the store×0.55 · 3108 matches2. Bundesliga×0.55 · 46 matchesPro League×0.55 · 480 matchesScottish Prem.×0.49 · 284 matchesSuper League×0.45 · 376 matches
Every league on one scale, with the intervals that say how much European football each has played.